![]() What the hell kind of standard path is there for a Global Macro analyst anyway? Doesn't seem to be one.You'll see traders off macro desks at the big banks (FX spot, forwards, govie rates, occasionally even commodities), people from the World Bank or IMF, econ Ph.D students, etc. ![]() Shaw fund? Or what about at Shaw in a non-quant role? I was considering interviewing for them but then I graduated in 2008 when they actually cancelled all their recruiting spots at Stanford. "Our seasonally-adjusted measure suggests that mobility is still down substantially (about 15%) relative to the pre-COVID baseline, presenting a more pessimistic picture of overall normalization that has taken place," the report reads.GS: DE Shaw's Oculus Fund (Their hybrid quant and discretionary global macro fund) isĭoes anyone know anyone who's worked in this D.E. The result is a recovery that's not nearly as promising as what the data first displayed. The additional data analysis provided context for the firm to better understand the Google data. Shaw calculated an increase in temperature of 10 degrees is equivalent to just under a 3% bump in retail visits without any other extenuating factors. So the firm built out its own seasonality factor to compare temperature levels with state data on shopping and dining.ĭ. Shaw was manipulating did not have enough of a history to determine the impact of changing weather on consumers' behavior. Taking into account seasonality fluctuations is not novel, but the Google data D. In other words, in the absence of a pandemic, we would have expected mobility during the rest of 2020 on average to have been substantially higher than during the GMD baseline period," the report reads, using an acronym for Google mobility data. "January is consistently close to the low point of the year in non-seasonally-adjusted activity. Stores typically see a lull in activity in January following the holiday shopping season. The biggest adjustment the firm made to the mobility data was adding in seasonality filters, which show that the retail foot traffic of January 2020 is a low bar to compare to. The analysis done on the Google mobility data was for the firm's discretionary macro team, which manages billions and is run by human traders, not machines. "This is not to say that these data sources are not high quality – they're reflecting what they are intended to reflect." Adjusting for seasonality, without history Shaw group's discretionary macro trading unit, told Insider. "The proliferation of alternative data has run ahead of the ability to process all of it in a meaningful way," Kris Dawsey, a global markets economist in the D. Shaw, the secretive fund started by computer scientist David Shaw, reveals in the report how it manipulates raw datasets like Google's geolocation info - offering a look inside how one of the smartest buy-side firms in the world makes its secret sauce. ![]() Funds have to clean, analyze, and dissect the info for it to be usable, leading to arms race at many firms for top data-science talent.ĭ. The recovery "has been more muted than the raw data suggests," a new research paper from the firm reads, and the promising bounceback since April "has essentially been nonexistent."Īlternative data, like Google's geolocation insight or the many supply-chain-focused datasets, is a great tool for top investors, but does not automatically turn into blockbuster returns. Shaw group, the $60 billion quant giant and one of many users of Google's data, found through its own analysis and manipulation of the data that this isn't the case. In other words, Americans were back to the dining and shopping routines they had before the pandemic.īut the D. ![]() To the untrained eye, this spring saw the return of Americans eating out and shopping at their favorite restaurants and stores at nearly the same level as pre-COVID times.Īccording to Google mobility data, which tracks people's locations with Google apps on their cell phones, retail and recreation visits in April, as well as the summer months, were roughly 5% off from where they were in January of 2020. The discretionary macro team put this dataset to work to monitor the overall economic picture.The firm is a big user of alt data, but warned it can be misleading without proper context. ![]() Shaw walks Insider through how it manipulated popular Google geolocation data. Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders. ![]()
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